How Polymarket weather markets resolve
A station-based temperature market does not resolve from crowd sentiment or from the highest-priced bin at midday. It resolves from the finalized daily high reported for the exact station named in the market rules, typically rounded to a whole degree in either Fahrenheit or Celsius.
1. The resolution source is the truth
The market description usually names the station and the resolution source. Many city markets point to Weather Underground daily history for the airport station, while some international markets use an official city observatory page instead. If the final historical value is 83°F, then the winning bin is whichever range contains 83, even if traders spent most of the day pricing a colder bracket.
2. The observed high so far is the key intraday signal
Once the station has already printed a temperature, bins entirely below that number become effectively dead unless the source is revised before finalization. That is why Skycast now highlights observed highs, dead bins, and the next threshold needed to force the floor up another bracket.
3. Price, model, and final resolution can disagree for hours
The live market reflects trader positioning. Skycast reflects a forecast model that conditions on live observations and the remaining forecast. The final market result reflects the resolution source after the day is complete. Those three can diverge, especially when traders are slow to react or when a live weather page is showing a current station reading before the daily history is fully finalized.
4. Whole-degree rounding matters
Many markets resolve to whole degrees only. That means an 82.6°F observation does not create its own special market state. The final settlement value is the rounded or whole-degree value specified in the rules, and the winning bin is whichever published range contains that number.
5. How to use Skycast correctly
- Check the exact station and local settlement day.
- Read the observed high so far before looking at market prices.
- Treat lower bins as dead once the station has already exceeded them.
- Use the forecast ceiling and spread to judge whether the next bin still has room to win.
- Always verify the external settlement reference listed in the market rules.
The best way to practice this is to compare the guide against a live city page such as Miami or Shanghai, then open the live dashboard to see the same signals across the full board.