Skycast
San Francisco market page
All tracked cities

San Francisco weather market outlook

This page tracks San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the station Skycast uses for San Francisco temperature-market context. It combines live observations with the remaining forecast to estimate the probability of each settlement outcome.

Current live snapshot

Skycast last refreshed this market at Aug 27, 11:50 PM PDT. The current live reading is 60°F, with today's observed high so far at 73°F.

  • Local settlement day: August 27, 2026
  • Today's modeled range: 58°F to 81°F
  • Today's top bin: 80-81°F (70%)
  • Market probability for that outcome: —
  • Model/Market Gap: —
  • Informational status: FORECAST ONLY
  • Tomorrow's top bin: 70-71°F (32%)

Top bins right now

Today is currently led by 80-81°F. The next most likely bins are shown below so you can see whether the market is tightly clustered or still has meaningful tail risk.

  • Today: 80-81°F (70%)
  • Today: 82-83°F (20%)
  • Today: 78-79°F (10%)
  • Tomorrow: 70-71°F (32%)
  • Tomorrow: 72-73°F (27%)
  • Tomorrow: 68-69°F (19%)

How to read San Francisco

The most informative number intraday is the observed high so far. Once the station has already printed a value, bins entirely below that number are effectively dead unless the source is corrected later. Skycast keeps that observation floor in view while still allowing for additional daytime heating if the forecast supports it.

For San Francisco, always verify the exact market rules before acting. Different venues can name the same city but resolve against slightly different stations or time windows.

Skycast probabilities are model estimates and may be wrong. Market probabilities represent live prediction-market pricing. A gap indicates disagreement, not guaranteed returns or advice.

Settlement reference

To compare this city against the rest of the board, open the live Skycast dashboard. For a plain-English explanation of final settlement, whole-degree rounding, and why live prices can disagree with the model, read how Polymarket weather markets resolve or visit the Skycast blog.