Skycast
Sao Paulo market page
All tracked cities

Sao Paulo weather market outlook

This page tracks Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR), the station Skycast uses for Sao Paulo temperature-market context. It combines live observations with the remaining forecast to estimate the probability of each settlement outcome.

Current live snapshot

Skycast last refreshed this market at Aug 18, 12:23 PM GMT-3. The current live reading is 28°C, with today's observed high so far at 28°C.

  • Local settlement day: August 18, 2026
  • Today's modeled range: 14°C to 29°C
  • Today's top bin: 30°C (35%)
  • Market probability for that outcome: —
  • Model/Market Gap: —
  • Informational status: FORECAST ONLY
  • Tomorrow's top bin: 29°C (30%)

Top bins right now

Today is currently led by 30°C. The next most likely bins are shown below so you can see whether the market is tightly clustered or still has meaningful tail risk.

  • Today: 30°C (35%)
  • Today: 31°C or higher (32%)
  • Today: 29°C (27%)
  • Tomorrow: 29°C (30%)
  • Tomorrow: 30°C (24%)
  • Tomorrow: 28°C (21%)

How to read Sao Paulo

The most informative number intraday is the observed high so far. Once the station has already printed a value, bins entirely below that number are effectively dead unless the source is corrected later. Skycast keeps that observation floor in view while still allowing for additional daytime heating if the forecast supports it.

For Sao Paulo, always verify the exact market rules before acting. Different venues can name the same city but resolve against slightly different stations or time windows.

Skycast probabilities are model estimates and may be wrong. Market probabilities represent live prediction-market pricing. A gap indicates disagreement, not guaranteed returns or advice.

Settlement reference

To compare this city against the rest of the board, open the live Skycast dashboard. For a plain-English explanation of final settlement, whole-degree rounding, and why live prices can disagree with the model, read how Polymarket weather markets resolve or visit the Skycast blog.