Skycast
Warsaw market page
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Warsaw weather market outlook

This page tracks Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA), the station Skycast uses for Warsaw temperature-market context. It combines live observations with the remaining forecast to estimate which settlement bin is most likely to win.

Current live snapshot

Skycast last refreshed this market at Mar 24, 11:20 PM GMT+1. The current live reading is 7°C, with today's observed high so far at 16°C.

  • Local settlement day: March 24, 2026
  • Today's modeled range: 4°C to 17°C
  • Today's top bin: 17°C (65%)
  • Tomorrow's top bin: 14°C (29%)

Top bins right now

Today is currently led by 17°C. The next most likely bins are shown below so you can see whether the market is tightly clustered or still has meaningful tail risk.

  • Today: 17°C (65%)
  • Today: 16°C (24%)
  • Today: 18°C or higher (11%)
  • Tomorrow: 14°C (29%)
  • Tomorrow: 13°C (27%)
  • Tomorrow: 15°C or higher (24%)

How to read Warsaw

The most informative number intraday is the observed high so far. Once the station has already printed a value, bins entirely below that number are effectively dead unless the source is corrected later. Skycast keeps that observation floor in view while still allowing for additional daytime heating if the forecast supports it.

For Warsaw, always verify the exact market rules before acting. Different venues can name the same city but resolve against slightly different stations or time windows.

Settlement reference

To compare this city against the rest of the board, open the live Skycast dashboard. For a plain-English explanation of final settlement, whole-degree rounding, and why live prices can disagree with the model, read how Polymarket weather markets resolve or visit the Skycast blog.